How have the parties fared in our Linlithgow and East Falkirk constituency poll?

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The results of our exclusive poll for the Linlithgow and East Falkirk constituency are in, and they show the SNP are on track to retain the seat on December 12th.

Other key trends we noted were :

  • Conservative vote down, perhaps at the expense of the Brexit Party, which could cost the Tories second place in the constituency on current polling if there is a Labour upswing.
  • Green Party and the Veteran and People’s Party both struggling to make an impact and both likely to lose their deposit.
  • Labour struggling on multiple fronts. Their vote share was significantly down in this poll from their 2017 result, and a weak intention to vote stated by those potential Labour supporters polled could hinder their chances.
  • SNP vote holding up well with a strong recognition of Martyn Day as their candidate. However, as in Livingston, with the SNP performing so well in polls nationally, a key worry for the party will be actually getting their supporters out to vote.

1. Voting Intention (Q. In the General Election to be held on December 12th 2019, which party are you most likely to support as a voter in the constituency of Linlithgow and East Falkirk?

Our polling showed a 6% increase for Martyn Day on his 2017 result for the SNP. The Conservatives showed an 8% decrease on their 2017 vote share, with this likely to have gone in part to the Brexit Party which polled 5.8%.

As with our Livingston poll, the biggest surprise was again the Labour share which had shrunk from 31.1% in 2017 down to 17.3% in our poll. As with Livingston, it would be quick to presume that this vote share had gone to the Greens and the Lib Dems, but the same words of caution apply.

Firstly, national polling has shown a Labour upswing through November at the same time as a decline in Lib Dem vote share, and the timing of our poll may reflect a nadir in Labour support nationally and locally.

Secondly, this election is anything but predictable and previously unthinkable switches of allegiance are now commonplace; lifelong Tories are voting SNP, lifelong Labour voters have switched to Lib Dem, and people who have not missed voting at an election in thirty years are refusing to vote. In summary, this election is entirely unpredictable for the majority of parties. So whilst we still fully expect Martyn Day to be re-elected as MP, the vote share between Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems is still very much in flux, and their positioning in second, third and fourth place could very well change once the final votes are cast on December 12th.

2. Can you name the candidate? (Q. Do you know the name of the candidate standing in the Linlithgow and East Falkirk constituency for the party you indicated in question one as the one you would most likely vote for?)

The answers here provided few surprises. We accepted first name, last name or both as answers. Martyn Day scored highest on 54% but having been MP since 2015, this relatively high score should be expected.

There is some good news for Labour here. Their candidate Wendy Milne scored relatively highly on 44%, perhaps benefitting from previous press exposure and a photo op with Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn in Linlithgow last month.

Sally Pattle scored reasonably highly too on 33%, with the Conservatives only managing a 22% recognition rate of their candidate amongst those stating a Conservative voting preference.

3. Likelihood to vote? (Q. Do you intend to vote in the General Election to be held on December 12th? By vote we mean by all legal methods such as voting in person on the day at a polling station, by postal vote or by proxy)

Whilst voters may support a particular party or candidate, they may not follow through and actually vote. This last question indicates that those who intend to vote Brexit Party, SNP and Conservative have a strong intention to follow through and vote, with each party scoring over 60%.

Of the six parties who our polling population stated they would be supporting at the next election, the party scoring lowest was Labour. Of those stating they would support Labour in our poll, only 33% had an intention to vote in this General Election. Whether this was caused by voters’ uncertainty about Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister and his Brexit stance, an issue those polled had with the local Labour candidate or a general apathy towards politics and voting is uncertain. A concern for Labour has to be though that any bounce in the polls in favour of Labour is cancelled out by those Labour supporters deciding to not cast their votes at this General Election.

 

Notes 1) Street and telephone polling conducted between 25th and 27th November 2019 – random polling sample  2) Polling conducted across three wards (Linlithgow, Falkirk North, and Grangemouth) 3) The gender and age of those being polled was not asked.